Cementing the U.S.-Japan Defense Alliance

China is building an enormous rocket force and a blue-water Navy with the aim of dominating the Pacific. Beijing is also expanding its military exercises, and Mr. Austin has warned of “a sharp increase” in dangerous Chinese intercepts of U.S. and allied forces.

Tokyo is taking notice and action in response, and Mr. Kishida summed up the concern to a Washington Post writer: “Ukraine today may be Asia tomorrow.” Secretary Austin said on Wednesday afternoon that the U.S. supported Japan’s plan to develop the ability to conduct long-range missile strikes. These would be useful in a fight over Taiwan. Japan has been in talks to purchase U.S. Tomahawk cruise missiles, which the U.S. has been reluctant to sell even to close allies.

Secretary Austin also announced a reshuffle of U.S. Marines on Okinawa into a Marine Littoral Regiment. These smaller formations of about 2,000 Marines are designed to be more nimble to react quickly in a crisis, and can pack a powerful punch with an antiship battery. The new regiment is expected to be up and running by 2025, but the sooner the better.

The U.S. isn’t expected to put more Marines on Okinawa, but this is still a notable political shift. The U.S. military presence in Japan is concentrated in Okinawa on the southern end of the Japanese islands not far from Taiwan. The local population has often been frustrated by the U.S. military footprint, from aircraft noise to crimes by U.S. personnel. But this week’s announcement is a tacit admission that living with the Marines is one cost of a credible military deterrent.

Japan’s defense awakening is part of a broader and welcome strategic shift in the Western Pacific in the past 18 months. The U.S., Australia and U.K. have struck the Aukus submarine accord, while the “Quad” (India, Australia, Japan and U.S.) relationship has been formalized and strengthened.

But Japan is the best example of an ally operating as a democratic force multiplier. Its economic strength means that if it does spend 2% of GDP on defense, it could have the third-largest military budget in the world. Japanese bases are also crucial for American success in a Pacific conflict.

A war game about a conflict in Taiwan run by the Center for Strategic and International Studies released this week noted: “While other allies (e.g., Australia and South Korea) are important in the broader competition with China and may play some role in the defense of Taiwan, Japan is the linchpin.”

One big and puzzling weakness in the Biden Administration’s Pacific strategy is its failure to lead on economics. It hasn’t pursued a bilateral trade agreement with Japan, America’s fifth-largest trading partner. It hasn’t tried to join the successor to the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which doesn’t include China. And its Indo-Pacific Economic Framework is weak tea that doesn’t include the market opening that Asian allies want from the U.S. and can be an alternative to China’s market.

The good news is that, in an increasingly dangerous part of the world, the U.S. has a close ally in Japan that is alert to China’s threat and willing to invest to deter it.