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There’s potentially good news for Florida and coastal U.S. cities this year ahead of the upcoming hurricane season. While specific forecasts for the number of hurricanes can’t be made yet, early outlooks suggest it could be less active than last year.
But this season comes with a big caveat, as Elon Musk and the Department of Government Efficiency takes aim at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration budget. Cuts there could impact how forecasters warn about potential storms or get people out of areas in the line of fire.
Meteorologists at the agency use satellite and observational data to track hurricanes, including factors like wind speed and rainfall. During hurricane season, which traditionally stretches from June through November, the tracking can mean the difference between getting hit the hardest, and being side-swiped by a cyclone. Accurate forecasts can save lives.
This year, the tropical Atlantic isn’t as warm as last year, The Washington Post points out. Warm temperatures supercharged waters along the Gulf Coast, powering up storms that blasted Florida and the Southeast.
Still, current conditions don’t entirely erase the possibility that the season could become hyperactive. The status of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, the climate pattern that plays a significant role in shaping tropical activity in the Atlantic basin, is in flux, according to FOX Weather.
Last year, there were 11 hurricanes and five that made landfall in the continental U.S. Of those, five reached major hurricane status, intensifying to Category 3 and higher.
The storms were seriously destructive, resulting in the deaths of more than 100 people in western North Carolina after Hurricane Helene swept the region last September.
“As hurricanes and tropical cyclones continue to unleash deadly and destructive forces, it’s clear that NOAA’s critical science and services are needed more than ever by communities, decision makers and emergency planners,” former administrator Dr. Rick Spinrad said last November.
Scientists have warned that any disruption at the agency could have immediate and dire consequences for all facets of forecasting. It is clear that anything climate-related has become a target under the “drill, baby, drill” agenda. It remains unclear who will be affected by possible layoffs and blows to budgets.
Concerns come as the agency’s National Hurricane Center that its forecast track performance was “its best in history” for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. Last year, the center issued 347 forecasts in the Atlantic basin, which is above the longterm average of 325.
“Preliminary verification indicates that NHC outperformed all of the individual models in 2024, and its track skill was near or higher than the best-performing consensus aids,” its report said. “Also of note, NHC’s forecasts were more consistent, changing less from cycle to cycle, compared to the global models.”
“I would definitely credit technology as the No. 1 advancement in general,” John Cangialosi, a senior hurricane specialist at the center, told NOLA.com.
NOAA credits investment into forecasting, and its newest hurricane model for advancing the accuracy of forecasts and supporting community preparedness during the 2024 season. After five years of development, the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System has improved their ability to anticipate the path of a storm and forecast intensity.
The agency said it aims to continue to improve that model. But, that was before President Donald Trump took office.
“The report shows that the investments we’ve made in hurricane research have paid off,” Jeff Masters, an author at Yale Climate Connections, a co-founder of Weather Underground and a former hurricane scientist with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters, told USA Today.
