Reform UK has overtaken Labour on voting intention for the first time in City AM‘s monthly tracking of UK voters.
Reform came top of the monthly voting intention tracker with 27 per cent, versus Labour’s 24 per cent and the Conservatives’ 23 per cent, according to the poll by City AM Freshwater Strategy poll.
The Liberal Democrats were behind on 15 per cent, while the Green Party scored seven per cent and the Scottish National Party (SNP) just three per cent, Freshwater found.
Researchers noted that the Nigel Farage-led party, which won just five MPs at the general election, is now up 12 points since July 2024.
The pollsters found they could be 110 seats short of a majority, at 216 seats, at a future election – if the UK voted with the same changes to the vote proportions across all constituencies, known as ‘uniform national swing’.
Labour’s vote share has declined by 11 points since the 2024 election, with a substantial 12 point uplift in Reform’s vote share.
However, Freshwater also found that Labour had overtaken the Conservatives as the party most trusted to manage the UK’s defence and national security – with Brits overwhelmingly backing the plan to fund higher defence spending by raiding the international aid budget.
Freshwater estimated that based on their polling, the Conservatives could end up with 144 seats, an increase of 23, while Labour could win 161, down by 251.
The Lib Dems, they forecast, could be on 66, down by six, and the Greens would be on four seats – with no change – while other parties could make up as many as 40 seats.
Director Dr Michael Turner said: “This is our first poll showing Reform UK ahead in Brits’ voting intentions.
“Reform lead with 27 per cent, followed by Labour on 24 per cent, [and] the Conservatives on pretty much the same on 23 per cent.”
He added: “While no one is suggesting there will be a uniform swing – as they rarely happen – if there was one, Reform would have the most seats, on something like 216 seats, to Labour’s 161, and the Tories on 144.”
Freshwater Strategy interviewed 1,215 eligible voters in the UK, online between February 28 and March 2, 2025, and the results have a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 per cent.
The data is weighted to be representative of UK voters.
