UK retailers warn national insurance rise will make job losses ‘inevitable’ – business live

Introduction: Retailers say national insurance rise will cost jobs

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.

Some of Britain’s largest retailers are crying foul over the government’s plan to raise their national insurance contributions, warning that it will cost jobs and drive up prices.

More than 70 businesses have signed an open letter to Chancellor Rachel Reeves, saying the changes the employers’ NICs contributions – plus the higher minimum wage and a packaging levy – mean price hikes are a “certainty”, and will cost the retail sector more than £7bn each year.

They warn that retailers cannot absorb such significant cost increases quickly by making efficency savings or eating into profits. Instead, they’ll be forced to take dfficult decisions such as lifting prices, offering lower pay rises, cutting staff and closing stores.

The letter is signed by major retailers including Tesco, Asda, Sainsbury’s, Aldi, Amazon UK, Boots, Lidl, JD Sports, Primark, Morrisons and Greggs.

In it, they warn:

“We appreciate Government’s focus on improving the fiscal situation and investing in public services; we also recognise the role businesses have in supporting this.

But, the sheer scale of new costs and the speed with which they occur create a cumulative burden that will make job losses inevitable, and higher prices a certainty.”

In last month’s budget, Rachel Reeves increased the rate on employer’s NI contributions (NICs) from 13.98% to 15% from April 2025, and lowered the threshold at which they pay NICs on employees earnings to £5,000 from £9,100.

The plan is forecast by the government to raise £25bn per year.

Marks & Spencer warned that the measure in the budget could cost it more than £60m next year, while Asda expects a £100m cost.

Hospitality businesses have already warned that they will have to slash jobs and investment, or close, due to the increase in NICs.

The issue of higher national insurance contributions will be on the agenda at parliament later this morning, when the Treasury Committee will question the Bank of England Governor, Andrew Bailey.

MPs will also hear from three members of the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee — deputy governor Clare Lombardelli, professor Alan Taylor and Dr Catherine Mann.

The committee say they’re likely to ask about the current economic picture, and how the measures announced in the Chancellor’s 2024 Autumn Budget will affect monetary policy.

The Bank’s plans for unwinding its QE portfolio, the most recent pay and jobs figures, and the continued issues with the reliability of official data, may also come up…

The agenda

10am GMT: Eurozone inflation report for October (final reading)
10.15am GMT: Treasury committee hearing with the Bank of England
1.30pm GMT: US building permits and housing starts data

Key events

Small investors are gloomier about the prospects for the UK stock market, according to financial services company Hargreaves Landsown.

The latest HL Investor Confidence Index, released this morning, has found that confidence in UK equities has decreased 11% month on month, while confidence in UK economic growth has also decreased by 13 points.

Emma Wall, head of platform investments at Hargreaves Lansdown, says that the London market have been hit by two headwinds: a UK Budget deemed by the market as potentially inflationary, and Donald Trump’s election victory, which pushed up shares but hurt bond prices.

Conviction in European stocks (down 4%) and Japanese stocks (down 10%) has also fallen this month, but investors are more confident in Asia Pacific (up 8%), Global Emerging (up 7%) and North American equities (up 5%).

Bloomberg have a corking exclusive: they’ve heard that antitrust officials at the US Department of Justice have decided to ask a judge to force Alphabet’s Google to sell off its Chrome browser.

They say:

The department will ask the judge, who ruled in August that Google illegally monopolized the search market, to require measures related to artificial intelligence and its Android smartphone operating system, according to people familiar with the plans.

Back in August, judge Amit Mehta ruled that Google violated antitrust laws as it built an internet search empire, prompting the DoJ to consider whether to break up the company.

Nestlé to cut costs in new action plan

Consumer goods giant Nestlé has announced plans for 2.5bn Swiss francs (£2.2bn) of cost cuts, to fund a new ‘action plan’ to drive sales and boost its share price.

Nestlé’s new CEO, Laurent Freixe, says he wants to “unlock the full potential” of the company’s portfolio – which includes chocolate bars such as KitKat and Aero, breakfast cereals, and coffee brands including Nespresso and Nescafe.

Freixe’s action plan includes “targeted” investments in Nestlé’s winning brands, addressing problems at its underperforming divisions, and more investment in advertising and marketing – funded by those cost cuts.

Nestlé’s also plans to spit off its water and premium beverages activities as a global standalone business.

Freixe says:

“Nestlé is a strong company with global reach, exceptional demand generation and in-market capabilities. We have a diverse and strategically well-positioned product portfolio. Our iconic brands and innovative products connect with people every day, at every stage of their lives.

These strengths give us a unique advantage and position us to win in the marketplace. We will now invest further in our brands and growth platforms to unlock the full potential of our products for our consumers and our customers.

IMF warns of dangers from tit-for-tat tariffs

A global trade war could also drive up inflation, and interest rates, if Donald Trump pushes on with his plans to impose new tariffs, and other countries retaliate.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned today that “tit-for-tat” tariffs could raise costs and disrupt supply chains.

Speaking at a forum in Cebu, in the Philippines, IMF Asia-Pacific Director Krishna Srinivasan warned it could also undermine Asia’s economic prospects.

Srinivasan said:

“The tit-for-tat retaliatory tariffs threaten to disrupt growth prospects across the region, leading to longer and less efficient supply chains.”

Keir Starmer denies budget to blame for rise in mortgage rates

The recent rise in UK mortgage rates will probably also be raised by MPs when they grill the Bank of England this morning.

A string of high street lenders have pushed up mortgage rates modestly in recent days amid expectations of higher inflation – partly due to measures in the budget.

Sir Keir Starmer, though, has denied that the budget is to blame for a recent rise in mortgage rates.

Speaking to journalists as he travelled to the G20 summit in Rio, the PM said:

“What we have done with the budget is to stabilise the economy and that, in my view, was the essential first step.

“As a result of that, the forecasts are for interest rates to go down, inflation to go down – you saw the figures around the budget.”

Starmer added that mortgage rates were “individual decisions for the banks, but the interest rates will be coming down”.

Interest rate are indeed forecast to come down, but not quite as quickly as hoped earlier this autumn. Currently, the money markets expect rates – currently 4.75% – will drop to 4% by next December. Before the budget, they were forecast to drop to 3.75% by the end of 2025.

The group of UK retailers also say they would like to meet withe chancellor Rachel Reeves, and suggest changing the schedule for introducing various money-raising measures.

Their letter says:

“By adjusting the timings of some of these changes, the Government would give businesses time to adjust and greatly mitigate their harmful effects on high streets and consumers.”