A developing Russian campaign of arson, sabotage and even murder plots has left western intelligence agencies alarmed over the past year.
The ramping up of activity has come as the Kremlin’s spy apparatus recovered from the initial shock of seeing 450 agents posing as diplomats expelled from Europe in response to the invasion of Ukraine.
What has particularly alarmed western spy bosses is the sheer recklessness of Russian activity, reflecting a belief in Moscow that while Ukraine’s western backers may not think they are at war with Russia, the Kremlin has other ideas. “Russian intelligence services have gone a bit feral, frankly,” Richard Moore, the head of MI6, said in September.
The most serious threat was an assassination plot targeting Armin Papperger, the CEO of the German defence company Rheinmetall, one of many European firms helping supply Ukraine. Though this was detected, other arms industry executives around Europe were also said to have been targeted by Russian assassins.
Police are investigating whether Russian spies posted incendiary devices – via the delivery firm DHL – around Europe, to Birmingham in the UK and Leipzig in Germany. This would have carried the risk of the devices catching fire inside the cargo bay of a plane and bringing it down, as the head of Germany’s domestic intelligence agency warned on Monday this week. It may be fortunate that no lives were lost.
Similarly, other suspected arson attacks – such as the burning down of a shopping mall in Warsaw in May – could easily have had more serious consequences. Poland has also accused Russian plotters of setting fire to an Ikea delivery centre the same month; while a Ukraine-linked warehouse in Leyton, east London, was set alight in an attack thought to be linked to Russia.
The aim of these “grey zone” attacks, which western officials believe to be orchestrated by the Russian GRU military intelligence, is to sow chaos among Ukraine’s partners, disrupt military supplies to Kyiv and widen splits in society of all kinds. But a reason why at least some are more chaotic is that Russia’s opportunities for traditional spying have diminished.
Without the traditional network of embassy-based spies, Russia has been forced to resort to riskier and less conventional methods, relying on criminals and others to carry out its dirty work.
Last week Ken McCallum, the head of MI5, warned that Russia’s GRU was engaged in a campaign to “generate mayhem on British and European streets” using proxies that “further reduces the professionalism of their operations”.
Other examples of suspected Russian activity appear amateurish and slight. French intelligence officials believe that Russia enlisted a group of Moldovans to carry out a low-budget antisemitic graffiti campaign using Star of David stencils across Paris last autumn, aiming to amplify division in society against the backdrop of the Israel-Hamas war.
In the summer, France foiled what appeared to be another amateurish plot by a 26-year-old Ukrainian-Russian man, who intended to target a hardware store north of Paris before the summer Olympics. He was arrested after accidentally detonating an explosive device in his hotel room near Charles de Gaulle airport.
Recruitment techniques appear to be haphazard, with social media such as Telegram used to enlist and pay young men sympathetic to Moscow, though judging by some of the plots, the tasking often appears speculative at best.
Russia often dismisses the idea of its involvement in plots around Europe as conspiracy theorising. But some hardline figures close to Vladimir Putin have hinted at their support for the covert tactics.
In a recent post on Telegram, Dmitry Medvedev, the hawkish former president, urged Russia to spread fear in Europe, stating: “Are they screaming about our use of fake news? Let’s turn their lives into a crazy nightmare in which they can’t distinguish wild fiction from the realities of the day, infernal evil from the routine of life.”
The thinking is disturbing, but so far the sabotage and intimidation campaign has had limited impact as Europe’s spy and counter-terrorism agencies respond to the threat.
